Texas Hispanic Voters Who Backed Trump Show Signs of Drifting Back Toward Democrats Ahead of Midterms

In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, a region that helped deliver Donald Trump an unusually strong showing among Hispanic voters in 2024, there are signs that the mood is shifting. With the midterm elections set for 3 November, Democrats hope to win back ground, though the task is far from easy.

At the small La Lomita Catholic Chapel, which stands about 200 yards from the Rio Grande and dates to the American Civil War, Father Roy Snipes preached on the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Known locally as the Cowboy Priest, he has served the congregation for almost half a century and resisted plans to seize the chapel's land for a border wall during Trump's first term. "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours," he told about 30 worshippers, most of them Hispanic. Government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project show Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, a larger share than any other state.

The area was once among the busiest crossing points on the US-Mexico border, and more than two and a half million apprehensions were recorded in a single year under former President Joe Biden. Trump pledged to end illegal crossings during his 2024 campaign, and border crossings are now at their lowest level in decades. That promise helped him take around 55% of Hispanic votes in Texas, a record for a Republican presidential candidate.

Recent polling suggests much of that support has ebbed. Surveys taken since late summer indicate a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president and favour Democrats over Republicans by a significant margin. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a tough race but credits the administration with securing the border. Most people accept deporting criminals, he said, but deporting productive, law-abiding people is where the problem begins.

Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who leads the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote Democrat in November. He said voters were not told how far the administration would go, and he described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk so much that he would be lucky to get four to six to show up. His case illustrates a distinction many border residents make between securing the border and the way the crackdown is carried out. Republican consultant Mike Madrid noted that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents.

Republicans had hoped the 2024 shift was permanent, which was part of the reason Trump pressed states such as Texas to redraw congressional maps early. Texas's 15th district was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans a notional 18-point majority, yet current polling shows a Democratic lead of five or six points. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has avoided the national party brand and focused on the economy. "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," he said.

The cost of living ranks at the top of many voters' concerns. At a local avocado festival, Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job," Baldwin said.

Republican campaigners acknowledge they are on the back foot. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga said the midterms are "purely a game of turnout". Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighbouring Democratic-held 28th district, credited Trump with "breaking through barriers" but said the "national political headwinds are real".

If the polls are right, and that is not guaranteed, even a modest swing back to Democrats could reshape races well beyond Texas. In the state itself, it could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, one Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.